THE MODEL · WC2026
A predictive model for fans who want the math.
ParallaxEdge launches June 11, the opening match of the FIFA World Cup. Bayesian probabilities for every fixture, with the methodology and the model’s track record published in public.
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UNTIL KICKOFF · MEXICO V SOUTH AFRICA · 2026-06-11 18:00 UTC
70.9%
ALGERIA OVER SENEGAL · MEDIUM CONFIDENCE · MODEL OUTPUT
WHAT YOU GET
Bayesian probabilities for every WC2026 fixture, updated daily.
The full methodology, published. No black box.
A track record audited in public, including the misses.
RESERVE A SPOT
Get the launch announcement and a methodology brief on June 9.
THE MODEL
The Bayesian model has a Brier score of 0.2999 across the WC2026 fixture set.
About 30% better calibrated than a maximum likelihood baseline. Calibrated, not just confident. The full methodology and the per-fixture audit will be public on June 11.
Read the methodology overview →